How to Salvage Your Losing Fantasy Baseball Team (Step 2 of 2)

Step 2: Patch your holes
You can make up for the near-fatal combination of a poor draft and star-player injuries by paying better attention than your opponents. Skim box scores — every night, for every team. The other members of your league are probably paying better attention to some teams than others, especially if you’re in a league with friends from the same geographic area. They may know which Yankee outfielder is on a tear, or which Met starter has pitched better than his record indicates, but they probably aren’t paying attention to the infield situation in Minnesota.

If you’re finally ready to cut your draft mistakes (Julio Lugo?!), you’re going to have some roster spots to fill. Some suggestions….

C: Dioner Navarro — A .326 AVG, .803 OPS a tight grip on the staring job, and a hot offense around him make Navarro the best catcher on your waiver wire, and a top-ten catcher overall.
see also: Chris Snyder, Chris Iannetta, Gerald Laird

1B:Eric Hinske — His 12 HR, 5 SB, and .845 OPS speak for themselves. He may have disappointed you in fantasy seasons past, but he’s a heck of a lot more useful now than Paul Konerko.
see also: Marcus Thames, Aubrey Huff

2B: Alexi Casilla or Alexei Ramirez — If you don’t have an Utley, Upton, or Kinsler, you should have one of these. These are their stats in the last 30 days:
Alexi Casilla: .315 AVG, .817 OPS, 3 HR, 4 SB, 23 RBI
Alexei Ramirez: .367 AVG, .918 OPS, 3 HR, 2 SB, 15 RBI

3B: Joe Crede — With 15 HR, a respectable .284 AVG, and a beautiful .900 OPS, it’s a marvel Crede is available at all.  If you are the one guy in your league without two stud third basemen, now might be your last chance.  15 home runs should not be on the waiver wire.

SS: No studs here, but plenty of better options than Julio Lugo.  Bobby Crosby is putting together a  respectable enough season at a shallow position (.262 / 4 HR, 5 SB, 36 RBI) and Yuniesky Betancourt is heating up a bit. A slumping Stephen Drew is available in one of my leagues, and the injured (and before that, slumping) Troy Tulowitzki is available in another — either one will help you over the course of the season.

OF: Michael Bourn — He spent April as a frustrating one-category guy — flailing at the plate but running wild on the bases (.195 AVG, 11 SB), but in June he’s hitting .391 with only 3 SB.  He probably won’t finish the season with an average above .270, but the speed is definitely real.  Bourn was just put back in the leadoff spot after getting demoted to 7th in May, and with the Astros a half game out of last place in the NL Central, there’s no reason for him not to be aggressive.
see also: David DeJesus, Lastings Milledge, Fred Lewis, Skip Schumaker

SP: Kyle Lohse — I can’t say I really believe his numbers this year (8-2, 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but if your team needs help, you need to look beyond the sexy or obvious names and just find someone who will help you win. At minimum, Lohse is worth streaming at home against most NL offenses.
see also:Justin Masterson, Manny Parra, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens

RP: Damaso Marte — He’s the best overlooked setup man out there. He has one win, one save, and six holds with a 2.31 ERA over the last 30 days. He strikes out more than a batter per inning, and should be owned in all leagues that count holds.
see also: Joel Zumaya

How to Salvage your Losing Fantasy Baseball Team (Step 1 of 2)

Step One: Cut your losses.

It’s time to give up on the following players (if you haven’t already)**

C: Jason Kendall — You can do better. He may rank fourth in steals among catchers (with 3), but he’s tied for 37th in home runs (with 1) and his .257 AVG / .683 OPS are nothing to get excited about. If you really, truly believe he’s the best catcher available (and he’s not) then just let your catching spot sit empty and carry a deeper bench.

1B: Paul Konerko and Ryan Garko: They don’t crack the top-25 first basemen in Yahoo’s season rankings. Konerko doesn’t even crack the top-50 first basemen in ESPN’s rankings. Why are they on your teams?! Konerko is having his second sub-par season in a row, and is now hurt. Garko just isn’t there yet.

2B: Rickie Weeks — His batting average was already killing your ratios before he hurt his knee. He’s about to come off the DL, and if you have to drop someone to make room for him, just drop him. If his speed is compromised at all by the injury, he’ll be a complete waste of a roster spot. There should be plenty of b-level speed available on the waiver wire.

3B: Casey Blake — There are just too many good third basemen to carry Blake. If/when he heats up, go get him. But until then, his .254 AVG, 6 HR and 1 SB don’t even make him a top-20 third baseman.

SS: Julio Lugo — Shortstop is really not so shallow a position, nor are steals so hard to come by, that Lugo’s presence can be justified in a fantasy lineup. Not even if you’re a Sox fan.

OF: Delmon Young — The Twins are clearly tiring of Young’s lack of power (1 HR!) and patience (.693 OPS), and you should be too. Fortunately, you can drop him without consequence.

SP: Max Scherzer — I was prepared to love him like a cuter, brown-and-blue eyed Tim Lincecum. He’s back in the minors, so love will have to wait ’til next summer (or ’til Randy Johnson’s back gives out).

RP: Rafael Soriano – He’s on the DL for the second time this season, his elbow hurts, Mike Gonzalez is about to come off the DL… if and when Soriano returns, it will most likely be into an awful closer-by-committee situation. It’s not worth the stress.

**All of the players above are on the rosters of one or more teams in my various fantasy baseball leagues — the deepest of which has 12 teams.

Super Mario Bros: ‘Stache Attack

Over their last 10 games, Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon are a combined 33-for-75 (.440). Fantasy players should take note of these facial hair trends: while eccentric chin hair has a negative effect on production (see Nick Swisher’s April stats, when he sported a blonde patch, or Scott Spiezio his entire 4th-outfielder career),  wild and itchy mustache growth (see Damon, Giambi, young Mike Piazza), seems to add the right sort of swagger.

Jay Bruce is on Fire, but sadly, not Hot

(AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Four games into his major league career, Jay Bruce is 8-for-14 with two doubles and two stolen bases. For comparison, Ryan Braun, last year’s absurdly amazing (and cute) rookie, was a meager 4-for-15 with one double, one stolen base, and one home run. If you used your waiver priority (or a draft pick, as in my league) on Bruce, you should be feeling pretty good right now. It’ll be hard to match Braun’s crazy home run total from last year (34 in 113 games!), but whatever he does, Bruce is this year’s difference-making rookie. At least in fantasy. The Reds are pretty bad, with or without him.

Cubs Rally for Victory, Celebrate with Triple Booty Bump

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Down 9-1 in the 6th, the Cubs managed a 10-9 victory thanks to home runs by Fukodome, Edmonds, Blanco and DeRosa and a completely ineffective appearance by Corpas. Edmonds went a triple short of the cycle and raised his average to .187….which is pretty much meaningless to fantasy baseball managers. More interesting is that the Cubs managed 4 home runs, and somehow not one was hit by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto or Aramis Ramirez. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.

Group Hugs, High Fives

The first Hug-of-the-Day award goes to Fernando Tatis (who apparently never quite retired), being congratulated below for his 12th-inning two-run double against the Marlins Wednesday night. The sorely needed win marked the Mets’ first victory in a game they were trailing after the 7th (they’re now 1-20).

Fernando Tatis (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Honorable Mention
(Disqualified for not meeting the technical requirements of a hug):
Corey Hart, Ryan Braun, and Matt Cameron coordinate a three-way high five in their one-nothing victory over the Braves.

(AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Brandon Webb: 9-1

(AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

The Marlins ended Brandon Webb’s perfect season Wednesday, raising his ERA to a somewhat-more-human 2.69 in the process. The Marlins — without their slumping star shortstop — scored three runs on seven hits and a suicide squeeze. For his part, Ricky Nolasco held the Diamondbacks to one run on four hits, three coming from J.D. Drew’s younger brother (BJ Upton’s younger brother and Chris Young both went hitless).

Elsewhere

Baltimore at New York: Darrell Rasner pitched seven shutout innings against the Orioles. He is now 3-0 since being called up at the beginning of the month, the rest of the Yankee rotation is 3-7. Hank Steinbrenner proved he’s not the man his father was, as (at least publicly) he had nothing but nice things to say about Lester’s no-hitter.

Kansas City at Boston: Bartolo Colon — who I most often cite in barroom arguments about why I wouldn’t give Sabathia a 5 year deal — won his first game since June 2007. Two runs in five innings against the Royals isn’t exactly exhilarating, but he did win a Cy Young just three years ago, so he’s worth watching.

New York at Atlanta: The Braves took their third in two days against the once-again-struggling Mets. Jair Jurrjens pitched another great game (I love him), Mark Teixeira is 7-for-10 this series, and two Mets outfielders are down — Ryan Church with a concussion, Moises Alou with more leg trouble.

Los Angeles at Toronto: Speaking of down, how scary is it to play infield for (Los Angeles of) Anaheim right now? First Howie Kendrick went on the DL (hamstring), then Chone (hamstring) joined him, both suffered repeated setbacks, and now Erick Aybar dislocates his right pinky finger. Figgins returned to action Wednesday, but any lingering discomfort will kill his fantasy value, as his value rests entirely on those speedy legs of his.

Texas at Minnesota: The combined records of Livan Hernandez (who starts tomorrow for the Twins) and Sidney Ponson (who won today for the Rangers) is 9-2. I don’t really know what to say. Be skeptical.

Lester Throws No-Hitter against Royals, Receives many Hugs

(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

With Jon Lester’s no-hitter against the Royals Monday night, the Red Sox have now have two no-hitters in as many years by pitchers under 25. Considering the underwhelming performance of the Yankees’ young arms (Kennedy and Hughes are a combined 0-7), and his now-famous suggestion that Mike Mussina pitch more like Jamie Moyer, Hank Steinbrenner should hopefully have some interesting comments by the morning. I’ll try to keep you posted. In the meantime, congrats to Lester, and Yankee beat reporters.

And now, one more hug shot (the best part of big wins).

Interleague Roundup: Reds, Mets, White Sox Sweep

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Kansas City at Florida It didn’t even take a winning team to reveal the Marlins’ flaws. The Royals took two of three from the NL East-leading Marlins, knocking their division lead down to one game. Zack Greinke notched his 8th quality start, tying Brandon Webb and 5 others for the MLB lead.

Cleveland at Cincinnati Cliff Lee was finally defeated by Edinson Volquez and the red hot Reds. Joey Votto delivered the KO with a pinch hit home run in the 6th.

Milwaukee at Boston The Red Sox completed their sweep of the Brewers in an eight home run slugfest. David Ortiz and Ryan Braun hit two each, and have clearly put their early season slumps behind them. Josh Beckett gave up 6 runs, all driven in by home runs, but still struck out 9 and got the win.

Pittsburgh at Chicago For only the second time in the last seven days, Alfonso Soriano failed to hit even a single home run. The Cubs still managed to beat the Pirates 4-3, and my favorite middle reliever, Carlos Marmol, bounced back from yesterday’s loss by striking out the side for his 11th hold.

Chicago at San Francisco The White Sox won their 5th straight against the Giants Sunday, and made many fantasy baseball managers feel pretty smart. This was one of the most obvious series for streaming pitchers, and anyone who put up Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, or John Danks against the less-than-intimidating Giants lineup should congratulate themselves, but not expect the same production next week against the Indians and Angels.

Detroit at Arizona Randy Johnson pitched seven shutout innings against the Tigers for his 288th career victory. 300 isn’t looking so far off anymore, if (and it’s a big if) Johnson can stay healthy.

New York at New York The Mets completed their two-game sweep of the last-place Yankees and handed Chien- Ming Wang his second straight loss. Power came from the less likely sources, as Jose Reyes and Ryan Church both went deep, while Carlos Delgado was robbed of a home run by a bad call at the left field foul pole. Reyes, besides the sudden power, had his second straight two-hit game and may finally be coming out of a slump that dates back to last September. The struggling Yankees have reason to be optimistic — Alex Rodriguez is scheduled to rejoin the team Tuesday.

Fantasy Baseball: Pitchers to Target

Joakim Soria – (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)
If you haven’t already begun the process, it’s time to start making trade offers in your fantasy league, and not just of the buy-low / sell-high variety. You should of course be targeting proven commodities that are under-performing, but there are a ton of previously underrated or just under-the-radar players that everyone is just assuming are playing over their heads. Every year a couple hot starts turn into career years — Fausto Carmona in 2007, Justin Verlander in 2006. I’ve broken down trade targets (or pickup options, depending on the depth of your league) into two categories — those pitchers whose value may be at its low point due to a few rough outings, and those pitchers whose numbers appear to be too good to be true, and need to be targeted accordingly. Remember, in both cases perception of interest is key — if your potential trade partner has a couple of hot pitchers, say Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, make a somewhat low offer for Lincecum, and in the counteroffer process, grudgingly say you’d be willing to take Lee, whose hot start is obviously unsustainable, because you need pitching badly enough to take the risk. Point to his messy start against the Reds on Sunday as proof that he’s falling back to Earth. If you can get him in a one-for-one deal, say a premier closer or a Spring hitter like Youkilis, or more fairly a solid one-dimensional hitter like Adam Dunn, then pull the trigger. Six straight wins and an ERA and WHIP under 1 don’t happen through sheer luck — Lee is healthy, has great control, and at 29 seems to be hitting his stride.

Buy Low / They’re Only Going to Get Better

Johan Santana — How, you may ask, is Santana a buy-low candidate? He’s 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA, .229 BAA, and 1.12 WHIP. Not too shabby. Except anxious fantasy owners look at Brandon Webb’s 9 wins, at Edinson Volquez’s sub-2.00 ERA, at Ryan Dempster’s .172 BAA, and at Ervin Santana’s 1.01 WHIP, and wonder why their first-round draft pick is being out-performed by not just second-round pitchers like Webb, but undrafted rookies and has-beens. The difference is that Santana is only going to get better (see his career splits), while all of the pitchers above (except, perhaps, Webb) will inevitably regress towards the league average. If anyone is souring on Santana, or just feeling that he is unnecessary on a staff featuring the likes of Lee, Volquez, and/or Ervin Santana, then by all means pursue him.

Dustin McGowan — Burnett and Halladay are the most familiar names in the Toronto rotation, and Shaun Marcum is the least hittable of late, and for those reasons, McGowan should be the best bargain. He pitches efficiently and with good control, but has struggled a bit so far to a 2-3 record with a 4.38 ERA. His high .338 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) compared to his low HR/9 of 0.58 shows that bad luck has been a factor in his results. Only twice in 9 starts has he allowed more than 3 earned runs. Go after him now before the memory of last month’s 9-run pounding by the Indians fades.

Justin Verlander — He’s 1-6 with an ERA just over 6. He’s not hurt, his stuff is still great, and his run support has to improve. It may be too late for Verlander to win 20 games or the Cy Young, as many of us anticipated, but 10 wins from here on out is still pretty good production and not unthinkable if he can just get his mechanics straightened out. There’s some risk here, but that’s why you should be able to get him at a deep discount.

Buy High / They’re More Real Than You Think

Joakim Soria — His numbers so far are unbelievable: 17 saves, 1.04 ERA, 0.40 WHIP, .088 BAA. Everything except the saves look very real. Kansas City probably won’t continue to give Soria save opportunities at this rate, but with Greinke and Bannister looking like legitimate top-of-the-rotation starters, that drop-off won’t be as severe as some may think. Even correcting for the team he plays for, Soria should quietly be a top-five closer this year. His ratios are outstanding, and if you can find an owner nervous about having a closer on a losing team, see if he’ll bite on Jon Lester.

Cliff Lee — As I said above, his numbers are too good to ignore or write off as a fluke. He’s locked in, and as long as the Tigers struggle, the AL Central is a pretty cushy place to pitch.