May 13, 2008...4:35 am
Big Fish
It’s May 12th, and every day it’s getting harder to ignore the Marlins, now tied for the best record in the NL. But Tampa Bay has a better chance of finishing where they are (2nd in the AL East) than the Marlins do of staying atop the NL East. Sure, Hanley Ramirez is insanely talented without any of the usual qualifiers (…but raw, …but troubled). But the rest of the offense is chock full of buts — Uggla’s got power but strikes out too much (4th in the NL with 39 Ks); Hermida strikes out four times as often as he walks; Luis Gonzalez is off to a decent start, but is 40, and last year hit 40 points lower in the second half. That offense has a plenty of talent, but there’s no way they keep this up.
Now the pitching: The bullpen is legitimately improved. Gregg has settled in well as closer. Pinto looks great in the setup roll. And that’s the last positive thing I can say about this staff.
Scott Olsen, the Marlins “ace”, walks too many and doesn’t get the strikeouts to balance out. Two of Olsen’s four wins have been against the Washington Nationals. When he’s eventually forced to pitch more in the strike zone — there’s only so long “effectively wild” works, just ask Daniel Cabrera — the hits will go up, his ERA will rise, and by mid June everyone will laugh at his once near-universal fantasy ownership. And a bad outing or two might be all it takes to awaken Olsen’s personal demons.
Trade him now.
Mark Hendrickson leads the Marlins with five wins, but as the oldest pitcher on the staff, and with a career BAA of .289, is the least likely candidate for a breakout season. 22-year-old Andrew Miller may be a superstar someday, but right now the league is hitting .340 against him — and that’s with three starts against the Nationals.
The Marlins have played one series against a team with a winning record (at the time of the series), and were not only swept, but outscored 25-10 by the Dodgers. They’ll face the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Phillies in the second half of May…
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